A word on the polls - don't get discouraged

As conservatives, the polls right now can be disheartening. We are rather stunned that such a vapid, empty suit as BHO can be leading.

But, take heart. This is a quote from Slate magazine from before the Bush v Gore election;

Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential race. Three show a dead heat, one shows George W. Bush leading by a single percentage point, and the rest show Al Gore leading by one to 10 points. In the latest polls, Gore leads by an average of five points. It’s fashionable at this stage to caution that “anything can happen,” that Bush is “retooling,” and that the numbers can turn in Bush’s favor just as easily as they turned against him. But they can’t. The numbers are moving toward Gore because fundamental dynamics tilt the election in his favor. The only question has been how far those dynamics would carry him. Now that he has passed Bush, the race is over.

WRONG.

Here are a few things to remember:

1) The polls almost uniformly over-sample Democrats. They take their 'sample' and then 'adjust' it based on their believe about the 'actual' split between that parties. The more honest ones will show you this if you look into the poll's internals.

2) When you see the polled 'adults' - add 8-10% to the Rep score.
When you see 'registered voters - a 6-8
When you see 'likely voters' - add 2-4.

Why - because this will about wash out the rigged way a lot of polls are taken, the sample they use, and will more gel with reality

3) Especially in this election - people lie to the pollsters. This is a 'white guilt' thing. Remember the 'Bradley effect'. When Tom Bradley ran for CA Governor in 1982, he was leading in the polls. But, he lost. Bradley was a black man running against a white opponent. People told pollsters they would vote for Bradley - but ultimately, did not. It was understood at the time as a racial bias. This is not dead in 2008.

There was a poll that attempted to ask people if race affected their vote. What they SHOULD have asked was 'Will race affect the way your friends and family vote?'. People's own feelings would be more honestly revealed with that question.

4) The polls will tighten around 10 days before the election. Pollsters care about their reputations - and the last polls prior to election day are how they are judged.

Now is not the time for pessimism. Keep fighting the good fight. Start volunteering, keep talking to your friends and co-workers.

For McCain - my advice:

- No more Mr. Nice guy. Point out Ayers, point out Alinsky, point out BHO's links to ACORN. Remind people of the Annanberg Challange. Do it with passion. Do it in between explaining to people what YOU will do.

- Tell people the REAL cause of the financial mess - Federal Govt meddling in the Free Market. Defend the market - don't make it the villain.

- Release Sarah to be Sarah. Let her disagree with you on the stump. Let her passion flow. She is your best weapon.


Now, I don't know whether this will work. This is a tough year for us. People are sheep - they look at BHO as some kind of Savior. We have seemed to lost our passion and understanding of the power of Liberty. People seem to want a nanny-state. ACORN is busy with nationwide voter fraud and swelling the rolls with bogus, absentee voters.

But, don't give up - don't be depressed. Get pissed and get busy.